U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 76 pp. That said, lagging rural regions are likely to be geographically remote, with poor infrastructure, low population density, and limited employment opportunities. 6: Forests, KM 1 and KM 3).274, Wildfire is a well-known risk in the Southeast region, where it occurs with greater frequency than any other U.S. region.275 However, mitigation strategies, particularly the use of prescribed fire, can significantly reduce wildfire risk and have been widely adopted across rural communities in the Southeast.190 A doubling of prescribed fire at the landscape scale has been found to reduce wildfire ignitions by a factor of four,4 while it is well documented that prescribed fire reduces the potential for crown fire in treated forest stands.276With greater projected fire risks,191,277 more attention on how to foster fire-adapted communities offers opportunities for risk reduction (see Case Study Prescribed Fire and Key Message 3).278,279, Heat-related health threats are already a risk in outdoor jobs and activities. Addington, R. N., S. J. Hudson, J. K. Hiers, M. D. Hurteau, T. F. Hutcherson, G. Matusick, and J. M. Parker, 2015: Relationships among wildfire, prescribed fire, and drought in a fire-prone landscape in the south-eastern United States. 17: Complex Systems). Twilley, R. R., S. J. Bentley, Q. Chen, D. A. Edmonds, S. C. Hagen, N. S.-N. Lam, C. S. Willson, K. Xu, D. Braud, R. Hampton Peele, and A. McCall, 2016: Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain. As a result, Charleston has developed a Sea Level Rise Strategy that plans for 50 years out based on moderate sea level rise scenarios (Figure 19.10) and that reinvests in infrastructure, develops a response plan, and increases readiness.45 As of 2016, the City of Charleston has spent or set aside $235 million (in 2015 dollars) to complete ongoing drainage improvement projects (Figure 19.9) to prevent current and future flooding. The region is slightly rolling near the midlands and flat toward the coast. In Lenoir County, for example, manufacturing employs 25% of the workforce, whereas statewide this sector only employs 12% of the labor force1, and the countys population declined by 4.4% from 2010 to 2017. It is estimated that with a meter (about 3.3 feet) of sea level rise, the Southeast would lose over 13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites and more than 1,000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places.66 This includes many historic buildings and forts in cities like Charleston, Savannah, and St. Augustine. In the 1990s, in-migration began to outpace natural population growth the number of births minus the number of deaths.3 In addition to wealth transfer, which can serve as financial capital to invest in new and existing businesses, population growth in these communities is generally associated with new jobs in construction and higher demand for employees in retail and commercial services. Recent changes in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan migration streams. Williams, C. M., H. A. L. Henry, and B. J. Sinclair, 2015: Cold truths: How winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change. Sherrod, C. L., and C. McMillan, 1985: The distributional history and ecology of mangrove vegetation along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastal region. Amekudzi, A., M. Crane, D. Springstead, D. Rose, and T. Batac, 2013: Transit climate change adaptation assessment for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 1).7 In particular, precipitation trends for the Southeast region show an inclination towards slightly drier summers, which could reduce productivity, and wetter fall seasons, which can make it difficult to harvest the full crop. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, 37 pp. Urban and rural areas exist along a continuum from major metro areas to suburbs, small towns, and lightly populated places. Although the agricultural output has been on the Berdanier, A. Island Press, Washington, DC,. Sixty-one percent of major Southeast cities are exhibiting some aspects of worsening heat waves, which is a higher percentage than any other region of the country.12 The urban heat island effect (cities that are warmer than surrounding rural areas, especially at night) adds to the impact of heat waves in cities (Ch. Technical Report 02-15. Books, 2003: Modeling mangrove forest migration along the southwest coast of Florida under climate change. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA, 167 pp. WebToggle navigation. City of Charleston, 2015: Sea level rise strategy. ), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts. Douglas, E., J. Jacobs, K. Hayhoe, L. Silka, J. Daniel, M. Collins, A. Alipour, B. Anderson, C. Hebson, E. Mecray, R. Mallick, Q. Zou, P. Kirshen, H. Miller, J. Kartez, L. Friess, A. Stoner, E. Bell, C. Schwartz, N. Thomas, S. Miller, B. Eckstrom, and C. Wake, 2017: Progress and challenges in incorporating climate change information into transportation research and design. U.S. Census Bureau, . Jackson, S. T., R. S. Webb, K. H. Anderson, J. T. Overpeck, T. Webb III, J. W. Williams, and B. C. S. Hansen, 2000: Vegetation and environment in Eastern North America during the Last Glacial Maximum. 7: Ecosystems, Figure 7.4).179 Some problematic invasive species are expected to be favored by changing winters. McEwan, R. W., J. M. Dyer, and N. Pederson, 2011: Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: Toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America. This was the seventh highest tide ever recorded in Charleston Harbor and the highest since Hurricane Hugo in 1989. doi: Doyle, T. W., G. F. Girod, and M. A. The city has responded by making physical modifications, developing a more robust disaster response plan, and improving planning and monitoring prior to flood events. Jones, W. D., 1979: Effects of the 1978 freeze on native plants of Sonora, Mexico. Decreasing costs of transport and communication have been a boon to rural areas, yet the quality of these infrastructures continues to be inconsistent. Annual occurrences of high tide coastal flooding have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several low-lying coastal cities in the Southeast (Figure 19.7).51,60 In 2015, several Southeast coastal cities experienced all-time records of coastal flooding occurrences, including Wilmington, NC (90 days), Charleston, SC (38 days), Mayport, FL (19 days), Miami, FL (18 days), Key West, FL (14 days), and Fernandina Beach, FL (7 days). USGS Professional Paper 1828. - Industries: Federal and state government, farming, horse industry. USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), . North Carolina physical regions 7: Ecosystems). Downsides of this population gain include higher costs of living driven by increased demand for housing and greater traffic congestion. Climate.gov, . they call it the gulf coastal plain because it close to the gulf of Mexico:} People also asked. Reuters Investigates. Williams, K., Z. S. Pinzon, R. P. Stumpf, and E. A. Raabe, 1999: Sea-level rise and coastal forests on the Gulf of Mexico. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, [various] pp. 9: Oceans, KM 2).35,252 While adaptation and resilience can moderate climate change impacts, rural areas generally face other stressors, such as poverty and limited access to healthcare, which will make coping to these climate-related challenges more difficult. Climate change tends to compound existing vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing inequities. Hauer, M. E., J. M. Evans, and D. R. Mishra, 2016: Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States. Natural amenities, like attractive scenery and recreational opportunities, draw people to rural areas and have boosted the wealth of many waterfront communities. Sources/Usage: Public Domain. Sakai, A., and W. Larcher, 1987: Frost Survival of Plants: Responses and Adaptation to Freezing Stress. Rural communities are integral to the Southeasts cultural heritage and to the strong agricultural and forest products industries across the region. Moftakhari, H. R., A. AghaKouchak, B. F. Sanders, D. L. Feldman, W. Sweet, R. A. Matthew, and A. Luke, 2015: Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future. Embedded in these land- and seascapes is a rich cultural history developed over generations by the many communities that call this region home. These increases were widespread across the region and can have important effects on both humans and the natural environment.18 By contrast, the number of days above 95F has been lower since 1960 compared to the pre-1960 period, with the highest numbers occurring in the 1930s and 1950s, both periods of severe drought (Figure 19.1). Climate change is likely to modify the seasonality, distribution, and prevalence of vector-borne diseases in the Southeast.29 Vector-borne diseases pose a greater risk in cities than in rural areas because of higher population densities and other human factors (for example, pools of standing water in man-made structures, such as tires or buckets, are breeding grounds for some species of mosquitoes). Average global sea level (or global mean sea level; GMSL) has risen about 89 inches since 1880, with about 3 inches of that rise occurring since 1990.51,52 This recent increase in the rate of rise is projected to accelerate in the future due to continuing temperature increases and additional melting of land ice.51 This recent global rate increase, combined with the local effects of vertical land motion (sinking) and oceanographic effects such as changing ocean currents, has caused some areas in the Southeast to experience even higher local rates of sea level rise than the global average.53,54,55,56,57,58,59 Analyses at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges show as much as 1 to 3 feet of local relative sea level rise in the past 100 years in low-lying areas of the Southeast.54,59 This recent rise in local relative sea level has caused normal high tides to reach critical levels that result in flooding in many coastal areas in the region. While well known for agriculture and forestry, rural areas also support manufacturing and tourism.250, In 2013, approximately 34% of the U.S. manufacturing output, or about $700 billion (dollar year not reported), came from the Southeast and Texas, including rural areas.255 While manufacturing growth has been particularly strong in the Southeast in recent years, future climate changes would pose challenges for economic competitiveness. For example, higher rates of heat-related illness have been reported in rural North Carolina compared to urban locations.280 However, strategies to reduce health impacts on hot days, such as staying indoors or altering times outdoors, are already contributing to reducing heat-related illness in the Southeast.281, Workers in the agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing sectors together with construction and support, waste, and remediation services work are the most highly vulnerable to heat-related deaths in the United States, representing almost 68% of heat-related deaths nationally.282 Six of the ten states with the highest occupational heat-related deaths in these sectors are in the Southeast region, accounting for 28.6% of occupational heat-related deaths between 2000 and 2010.282 By 2090, under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), the Southeast is projected to have the largest heat-related impacts on labor productivity in the country, resulting in average annual losses of 570 million labor hours, or $47 billion (in 2015 dollars, undiscounted), a cost representing a third of total national projected losses, although these figures do not include adaptations by workers or industries (Figure 19.21).35, Investing in increased cooling is one likely form of adaptation. Cross-disciplinary groups such as the Georgia Climate Project (http://www.georgiaclimateproject.org) are developing research roadmaps that can help to prioritize research and action with relevance to policymakers, practitioners, and scientists. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC, 2 pp.
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